中信证券--Computer Sector 2024 Investment Outlook(Fulltext)-Embracing the tide of to-b.pdf

《中信证券--Computer Sector 2024 Investment Outlook(Fulltext)-Embracing the tide of to-b.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《中信证券--Computer Sector 2024 Investment Outlook(Fulltext)-Embracing the tide of to-b.pdf（37页珍藏版）》请在中天文库上搜索。

1、Please read the disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the reportJan 7,2024Computer Sector 2024 Investment OutlookEmbracing the tide of to-be-set-in-motion innovationsYANG Zeyuan,DING Qi,PAN Ruchen,MA QingliuCITICS Research Computer TeamThis is a translation of the Chinese-language reportu Q r x

2、b i PJPZi 3f Ez 6 w k v Zi w y e l W 2 M R0 d x W z q Nw 0 Zf ZCE=u Q r x b i PJPZi 3f Ez 6 w k v Zi w y e l W 2 M R0 d x W z q Nw 0 Zf ZCE=2Core viewsAI leads supply innovations:AI computing power and localization come first,followed by AI applications;AI terminal iterationswill accelerate.1)Large

3、models:The landscape abroad is clear,with OpenAI and Google leading the way,Meta catching up,and typical vertical players booming.Bycontrast,the landscape in China,where tech(internet)companies and startups are competing,is yet to be set in stone.2)AI computing power:With the continuous development

4、of AI and breakthroughs in research,the growth in demand is driving increased computingpower,pointing to continued growth opportunities for sectors like servers.Meanwhile,foreign controls are adding to the urgency of developing AI chips.Wesee development opportunities for domestic vendors led by Hyg

5、on and Huawei(Ascend).3)AI applications:AI adoption may materialize based on large models from domestic vendors with capabilities comparable to GPT4.0.Given the use case,data,fault tolerance and technical requirements of industry-specific large models,we are optimistic about adopting AI in office,ed

6、ucation and enterprisemanagement and the potential supported by AI+software-as-a-service(SaaS)business models.4)AI terminals:The personal computer(PC)and mobile phone revolution is coming.After continuous iterations,the world model may become thefoundation model for autonomous driving algorithms,tak

7、ing a step forward toward general self-driving.Bright spots in demand:All eyes on structural opportunities in IT application innovation,data elements,and satellite internet.1)IT application innovation:In 2024,IT application innovation will expand at a faster rate from the Party and government end to

8、 the industry end.Bothsupply and demand conditions are improving.We believe attention should be focused on the elasticity of tender launches for key categories.From a longer-term perspective,IT application innovation may expand into vertical industry scenarios,creating more room for application.2)Da

9、ta elements:The accelerated development of data systems and continued improvement in data trading and circulation will promote computing-network integration and accelerate data application.Suppliers with core data assets are noteworthy.3)Satellite internet:Chinas satellite internet is in a stage of

10、high-quality development.Since Jul 2023,China has launched several satellites to test satelliteinternet technologies.In 2024,the countrys satellite internet buildout may accelerate.x Rh ENCs NRH p F2 o d 3n G Fk y h Y8 R2 b Pm a 1m w 6 b 4l F+f u L4=x Rh ENCs NRH p F2 o d 3n G Fk y h Y8 R2 b Pm a 1m

11、 w 6 b 4l F+f u L4=x Rh ENCs NRH p F2 o d 3n G Fk y h Y8 R2 b Pm a 1m w 6 b 4l F+f u L4=3Core viewsInvestment strategy:AI leads supply innovations,and structural bright spots are seen in demand.Looking ahead to 2024,we expect sector investment to center around AI.For supply innovations,we suggest fo

12、cusing on domestic computingpower and relevant applications.Meanwhile,we also call attention to areas such as IT application innovation,data elements,and satelliteinternet,where there are structural bright spots in demand.We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the computer sector and suggest building

13、exposure around the AI value chain and bright spots in demand.1)AI value chain:Computing power We highlight opportunities from the development of domestic players brought by the localization of AI chips and the semiconductorsupply chain and opportunities from sustained growth in sectors like servers

14、.On stock picking,we suggest keeping tabs on Hygon InformationTechnology(688041.SH),Chinasoft Intl(00354.HK),Dawning Information Industry(Sugon;603019.SH),IEIT Systems(000977.SZ),Foxconn IndustrialInternet(601138.SH),etc.Applications:We suggest focusing on software vendors in the fields of office,ed

15、ucation and enterprise management that should see a ramp-up inearnings.On stock picking,we call attention to Kingsoft Office(688111.SH),iFlytek(002230.SZ),Yonyou Network(600588.SH),Kingdee Intl(00268.HK),Beisen Holding(09669.HK),Servyou Software(603171.SH),etc.Others:We advise investors to keep an e

16、ye on segments of the AI value chain like large models,intelligent driving,and robotics.On stock picking,wesuggest focusing on Desay SV(002920.SZ),Thunder Software(300496.SZ),etc.2)Bright spots in demand:We suggest focusing on structural opportunities in sectors like data elements,IT application innovation and satellite internet.Potential risks:Slower-than-expected macroeconomic development;disappointing development and progress in AI technologies;lower-than-expected IT spending bygovernments an